Guangfa Strategy Review December Politburo Meeting: The change of policy tone "not seen for several years" is more direct to the determination to support the stability of the equity market and the real estate market. Guangfa Strategy Review December Politburo Meeting said that although the draft of the meeting did not involve specific economic target figures, the change of policy tone was "not seen for several years": (1) "Strengthening unconventional countercyclical adjustment" appeared for the first time in the draft of the conference, and we understand that this is likely to mean that the official target of deficit ratio will be unconventional. (2) "Moderately loose monetary policy" has reappeared since July 2010, and it has been "steady" during the period. Even in the 14-15 monetary easing cycle, there was no adjustment of this wording, which paved the way for the expectation of monetary easing in 25 years; (3) The "more active fiscal policy" has reappeared since July 2020. Under the special background of the 20-year epidemic, the official target of deficit ratio in that year was set at 3.6%, which was the highest since 2010. The change of tone after four years also indicates that the deficit space in 25 years is expected to be further opened.British Prime Minister Stamer meets UAE President.German Finance Minister: The influence of MERCOSUR agreement on German economy will be very positive, and trade relations will be more prosperous; The market reacted calmly to France; We hope to continue to establish constructive relations with Britain.
The Great Wall Fund with "Moderately Loose" Monetary Policy: It is expected to open up space for the downward trend of bond interest rates. the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee held a meeting on December 9. The meeting pointed out that a moderately loose monetary policy should be implemented next year. The Great Wall Fund said that based on the "moderate easing" of monetary policy next year, the downside of bond interest rates is expected to be further opened, optimistic about the bond market in the coming year; At the same time, with the coming of the New Year's market, the bond interest rate may further decline in the context of loose liquidity and the entry of insurance funds.The dollar rose 0.5% against the yen to 150.75.Hisense Group layoffs? Insiders: The year-end adjustment is very small. Recently, a number of people claiming to be Hisense employees posted a message on the online platform saying that "Hisense Group is facing large-scale layoffs, with the number of employees reduced from 110,000 to 80,000, and the number of layoffs is as high as 30,000." Another netizen certified as an employee of Hisense Home Appliances said that "the list will be published next week". In this regard, Sina Technology asked Hisense for verification, and the company did not respond as of press time. However, some insiders of Hisense said, "There is indeed internal adjustment, but it is a small proportion for the normal optimization adjustment at the end of the year." (Sina Technology)
Dongfang Jincheng: In 2025, the policy interest rate cut may reach 0.5 percentage points. the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee held a meeting on December 9 to analyze and study the economic work in 2025. Dongfang Jincheng judges that in 2025, the central bank will continue to implement vigorous interest rate cuts and RRR cuts, among which the policy rate cuts may reach 0.5 percentage points, which is significantly higher than the rate cut of 0.3 percentage points this year, and the interest rates of various structural monetary policy instruments will also be lowered in a timely manner, thus guiding the financing costs of enterprises and residents to go down. It is not ruled out that in 2025, it is possible to continue to implement a large-scale targeted interest rate cut on residential mortgages by greatly guiding the downward trend of LPR quotations for more than five years. (The Paper)Hailiang shares: planning to invest in Jinlong Group and cooperative management. Hailiang shares announced that the company plans to invest no more than 1 billion yuan to acquire part of the shares of Jinlong Group held by Chongqing Wanzhou Economic and Technological Development (Group) Co., Ltd., and at the same time, Hailiang shares plan to cooperate with Jinlong Group. This transaction does not constitute a connected transaction or a major asset restructuring.The Gansu Provincial Department of Transportation launched a Class IV defense response to low-temperature rain, snow and freezing disasters, and the Lanzhou Central Meteorological Observatory issued a blue warning of blizzard at 10: 34 on December 9: It is expected that there will be heavy snow in Lanzhou, Baiyin, Dingxi, Linxia and other cities and States, as well as northern Gannan, western Tianshui, western Pingliang, western Qingyang, southern Zhangye and southern Wuwei from 15: 00 on the 9 th to 20: 00 on the 10 th; Blizzard will appear in southern Linxia, western Dingxi, southern Lanzhou and central Baiyin. According to the relevant provisions of "Emergency Plan for Highway Traffic Security in Gansu Province" and "Comprehensive Emergency Plan for Transportation in Gansu Province", the Gansu Provincial Department of Transportation decided to start the level IV defense response to the freezing rain, snow and ice disaster of transportation at 20: 00 on December 9.
Strategy guide 12-13
Strategy guide 12-13